Four years from now, when this year’s high school freshmen graduate, they’ll be the largest high school graduating class ever and the most competitive, in terms of sheer numbers, to seek a college education. And the class following them will be even larger.

According to Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity, the trend toward increasing numbers of students is one of many changes that could cause major shifts in college populations in the next 10 years. The report is a joint publication of the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), ACT and the College Board.

“Our research shows that the nation’s high schools are graduating a far more complex and varied group of students than we’ve seen in the past,” said WICHE Executive Director David Longanecker.

The number of high school graduates nationwide is projected to peak in 2008-09, with 3.2 million earning diplomas. After that, in most parts of the country, enrollments and graduates will steadily decline. The largest regional growth will happen in the West, where enrollment will climb by 9 percent between 2001-02 and 2007-08. The South will see a 5 percent increase, while the Midwest and Northeast will experience declines of 9 and 2 percent, respectively.

“As our population changes, the landscape of education, from kindergarten through college, is changing too,” said Project Director Cheryl Blanco. “The challenges we’ll face in providing our students with a good education are many, and they’ll vary from state to state and region to region.”

Regional Variations
For instance, the student population in Arizona is projected to skyrocket by 55 percent between 2001-02 and 2017-18, with more than half of all graduates representing a racial/ethnic minority. On the other hand, Massachusetts is expected to see its overall numbers decline by 2 percent, with racial/ethnic minorities representing just 24 percent of all students.

Family Income
The large majority of 2006-07 graduates (68 percent) will come from families earning between $20,000 and $100,000. Roughly 16 percent will come from families earning less than $20,000 or more than $100,000. The fastest growing population of low-income students is in the West, while the fastest-growing population of top-income students is in the Northeast.

Diversity
In the graduating class of 2014, only about half the students are projected to be White, non-Hispanics, a group whose numbers will likely decline over the next decade. Hispanics are expected to be the fastest-growing group in the U.S., representing more than 20 percent of the 2014 class. The number of Asian/Pacific Islander students will also increase, with Black student enrollments remaining steady.

“The projected demographic shifts represent a call to action for educators in high schools and colleges,” said Cynthia B. Schmeiser, ACT’s senior vice president for research and development. “Our research tells us that the earlier we can provide academic and career-planning support to all students, the better prepared they will be to enter college and the workplace.”

Highlights of Knocking at the Door are available at www.wiche.edu/policy/knocking/1988%2D2018/.